CHURCHILL DOWNS ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY – 10/30/2020

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CHURCHILL DOWNS ANALYSIS FOR FRIDAY – 10/30/2020

RACE 1

E/S – CELESTIAL ORB 6/1 IS FASTEST EARLY IN A RACE THAT HAS ALMOST NO OTHER EARLY SPEED.

C – DOUBLE OAKED 3/1 IS THE BEST CLOSER BY FAR.

RACE 2

E/S – TOP SPEED IS SPEIGHTSTOWN AGAIN 9/2. ABAAN 5/1 HAS ENOUGH SPEED TO PRESSURE THE TOP HORSE EARLY.

C – TWENTY TWICE 3/1 IS THE CLEAR-CUT BEST CLOSER.

RACE 3

E/S – DECEMBER SEVEN 6/5 HAS BIG TIME EARLY LICK AND COULD EASILY LEAD THEM GATE TO WIRE IF HE BREAKS ON TOP. KNIGHT’S CROSS 6/1 AND RANSACK 8/1 HAVE GOOD EARLY SPEED BUT IT IS HARD TO SEE THEM BEATING THE TOP HORSE UNLESS HE FALTERS OR HAS A BAD TRIP.

C – ALTITO 6/1 IS BEST CLOSER. ONLY HORSE WHO COMES CLOSE IS LONGSHOT TAKE CHARGE D’ORO 10/1.

RACE 4

CONSIDERING THE CONDITION OF THE TRACK ON THURSDAY, IT IS VERY LIKELY TURF RACES WILL BE RUN ON THE DIRT.

E/S – PINTXOS 4/1 IS FASTEST EARLY AND IS THE ML FAVORITE, A HIGH PERCENTAGE ANGLE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE 4 OTHERS WHO HAVE DECENT SPEED, MARSAC 8/1, HAWK OF WAR 9/2, AND LONGSHOTS PUNCH HARD 12/1 AND DEFIED 15/1.

C – CRIMINAL DEFENSE 6/1 IS THE BEST CLOSER BY FAR

RACE 5

E/S – VERB 5/2 AND ELUSIVE D’ORO 2/1 ARE THE CLEAR SPEED AND ONE OF THEM IS VERY LIKELY TO WIN.

C – THE BEST CLOSER IS TRASHTALKINYANKEE 7/2 AND HAS S SPEED DUEL TO BENEFIT HIM IF HE CAN STAY CLOSE ENOUGH EARLY.

RACE 6

E/S – ONLY 2 ENTRANTS HAVE RUN AND ONLY CLEARLY MAD 7/2 HAS RUN FAST ENOUGH EARLY.

C – THERE ARE NO CLOSERS

X-FACTORS – THERE ARE 7 FIRST TIMERS. 5 ARE CONSIDERED CONTENDERS, CONFORMIST 9/2, POIRIER 6/1, SMOOTHIE 8/1, NAVEEN 8/1, AND MY BOY GUS 8/1.

RACE 7

CONSIDERING THE CONDITION OF THE TRACK ON THURSDAY, IT IS VERY LIKELY TURF RACES WILL BE RUN ON THE DIRT.

E/S – TOP SPEED BELONGS TO LONGSHOT FOREIGN EXCHANGE 10/1. ANOTHER LONGSHOT IS ERV’S WENCH 12/1. SPUN EASY 9/2 IS THE ONLY ML CONTENDER WHO RATES TOP 3 STATUS AND CAN BE CLOSE TO THE EARLY LEADERS.

C – TOP 2 ML HORSES ARE THE TO CLOSERS AUCTION FEVER 5/2 MTO AND BANKRUPTONTHETHE BEACH 3/1

RACE 8

E/S – TOP SPEED BELONGS TO HOME BASE 9/2 AND NIGHT TIME 8/1. BOTH TOUGH LOVE 3/1 AND SIR ALFRED JAMES 5/1 WILL BE TRACKING IN THE SECOND TIER.

C – NIFTY 6/1 IS THE TOP CLOSER. TWO OTHERS ARE ALSO STRONG IN THE STRETCH, DEAN MARTINI 6/1 AND DABO 8/1.

RACE 9

E/S – LOTS OF SPEED ON DISPLAY IN THIS 1 1/8 MILE RACE. TOP HORSE IS LONGSHOT FINAL CUT 15/1. THOSE JOINING HIM EARLY ARE LIKELY CELTIC STRIKER 8/1. ALSO IN THE HUNT SHOULD BE ROYAL MESA 5/1 AND SILVER PROSPECTOR 3/1.

C – TOP CLOSER IS MULTIPLIER 5/2. LONGSHOT HIGH REGARD 15/1 ALSO RUNS ON LATE. EVEN SILVER PROSPECTOR 3/1 HAS A SHOT GIVEN THE HOT EXPECTED PACE AND THE DISTANCE. HE IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE CLOSER TO THE EARLY PACE THAT THE OTHER CLOSERS.

RACE 10 

CONSIDERING THE CONDITION OF THE TRACK ON THURSDAY, IT IS VERY LIKELY TURF RACES WILL BE RUN ON THE DIRT.

E/S – THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO WINNING EARLY SPEED ON DISPLAY HERE. QUEEN OF THE GREEN 4/1 AND LONGSHOT REGAL SONG 12/1 WILL TAKE THEM AS FAR AS THEY CAN.

C – TOP CLOSER IS AMORITIZATION 4/1. THE OTHER LATE THREAT IS SARANYA 7/2.

X-FACTORS – ALL ARE LONFSHOTS. PALM COURT 10/1 HAS RUN BUT GETS NO RATING. LADY CLEMENTINE 10/1 AND CALLE DE LLORA 12/1 ARE FIRST TIME STARTERS.

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