I read with interest Andy Beyer’s article on the new polytrack surface at Keeneland.  You can too by following the following thread:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/18/AR2006101801725.html

 Any measure that purports to ensure the safety of the horses starts on a good foot with me.  These animals epitomize beauty and grace.  The collateral benefits to the sport of horse racing that come from protecting the horses’ safety are significant. 

For one it should allow horses to race more.  They can come back off shorter layoffs and go back to the barn with less discomfort.  They can’t tell us it feels better or thank us, but I’m sure they would if they could. 

For another, it will extend racing careers.  It is so frustrating seeing the world’s best three year olds retired after a successful season.  As much as I hate to see it, I really can’t be too critical of a decision to retire a Derby or Travers or BC Classic winner.  The risk of injury is so high, and I’ve never owned an animal that was worth 20 million dollars, so I really can’t pretend as if I know whether or not I would let my 20 million dollar horse race into his four year old season.  But I do know that my decision to continue to race him would be easier if the threat of injury were significantly lower.

I’m not ready to agree that the Polytrack surface significantly reduces injuries to thoroughbreds but the data is very encouraging so far.  I’m optimistic.

Mr. Beyer suggests that the new Polytrack surface has changed the game.   He suggests that the new surface hurts the chances of the speed horses.  Using passive observation from the first nine days of racing at Keeneland, Mr. Beyer suggest that the jury is out and the track is completely different from a handicapping perspective. 

For a numbers guy, Andy could have graced us with some data to go with his observations.  Because I’m not buying it.  At least not without seeing some statistical proof. 

I’m not holding my breath for Andy to provide it so I will do my own.  All I need is a set of data to benchmark the results at Keeneland against.  The statistical test I will use is a simple two-proportion hypothesis test.  One data set will be from Belmont Park.  The other data set will be from Keeneland.  The null hypothesis will be that the proportion of speed favoring horses winning at Belmont is the same as the proportion of speed favoring horses winning at Keeneland. 

Check back in a week.