I’ll start with speed in the Derby, since we are seven months away… it will give us all some time to stew on it…

There is a common misconception that speed “just happens” in the Derby.  Here’s why that cannot be true.

Imagine you buy a horse for a million and a half bucks, and then you hire a top notch trainer, and he wins a couple of races so you start to think he might have a shot at the big dance.  So you and the high-priced trainer carefully plan his Derby preps.  He continues to run well… Things are looking good. 

Over his short racing career, your horse has developed a racing style and it is one that appears to work well.  You probably have a jockey that knows how to ride your horse to best suit his natural running style.

So now we fast forward to the Derby and your horse finds himself going a furlong farther than he has ever gone, up against likely 19 other horses - the biggest field he has ever faced, and the purse is the biggest ever.  Oh and let’s throw in the future stud fees for the horse that wins.  Millions on the line. 

Is it remotely feasible that the trainer will suggest sending the horse out at an insane pace, or tell the jockey to keep the horse close to an insane pace?  Ridiculous!  Can you imagine the trainer suggesting you make your horse “the rabbit” to set up the race for another horse in his barn?  I don’t think so!

In fact it is far more likely that the trainer and owner will want to get their horses the “perfect ride” as many suggest is always a prerequisite for winning the Derby.  I honestly can’t remember the last time the Derby winner didn’t get a write up that didn’t include the expression “pefect ride.”  Can’t honestly remember the last time I read something like, “Boy sure didn’t expect that horse to run that much out of character” in winning the Derby.

So why do so many people expect the Derby to have a hot pace?

Well… big fields do juice up the pace a bit.  It is simple math.  Usually 3-4 stalkers in a normal field, now there are 8.  Someone has to get shoved back and those that don’t have to work pretty hard to not get shoved back.  Horses caught wide on the turn have to work that much harder to catch up.  These influences will increase the pace.  It is pretty much common sense.  But it is a function of the size of the field, not the fact that it is the Derby.

And then there is the Derby distance.  These horses are three year olds.  They likely have not gone this distance before.  Maybe one or two at most have done so.  The extra distance takes its toll on these young horses and really makes a dramatic showing when the pace does collapse.  But it is as much the added distance as it is the pace.  Even a normal pace going the “classic” distance will often bring about a big pace collapse. 

Horses that can go the distance, leading all the way, are a serious threat in the Derby because of the factors I mentioned above.  Examples are War Emblem and Sinister Minister.  In a race that no one expects a horse to be able to go that far, that fast, one that can can actually effect a steal.  But don’t look for them to run any faster than they have to in taking the lead. 

More later… we have seven months to discuss it.