The last time I booked a trip to Elmont, New York was to watch Smarty Jones take a shot at the Triple Crown.  The whole nation was abuzz with Smarty fever.   I took the opportunity to have dinner with some good friends, Andy and Monica.  We talked about old times and Smarty Jones.  About 20 hours later I shuffled out of Belmont Park like so many, my head hung low. 

As an experienced horse racing enthusiast, I knew it was over when they turned for home and Birdstone was gobbling up ground on Smarty Jones.  The heavy favorite was fried by a blistering pace.  Trudging out to my car, my stack of souvenier $2 win tickets still in my hand, I knew there would be no objection, no disqualification.  No doubt it was over, but it was still hard to let go.   I knew I’d have to face Andy and Monica’s three year old, Calvin, and try to explain what happened.  I’d made the mistake of talking up Smarty Jones to Calvin the night prior. 

“No, Calvin, Smarty Jones won’t be able to try next year.  It doesn’t work that way.”

That one was the worst ever, but there have been many close calls in recent years.  Each one seems to suck more life out of the Triple Crown hopeful.  Instead of giving us another Triple Crown winner, racing has given us horrific accidents like those of Barbaro and Eight Belles.  This year we have a great shot at a Triple Crown winner and it feels to me that the emotion surrounding his shot at doing it is somewhat subdued.  It could be that the nation is just afraid to get their hopes up. 

But my spirits have never been better about seeing a Triple Crown winner.  Even though each near miss is followed by the usual steady stream of theories why the Triple Crown has become too hard, (breeding, not enough rest between races, damaging surface) I let it roll right off my back.  Because it simply doesn’t make any sense.  I find the Triple Crown finishes in recent years to be extremely encouraging.  For example – since  1998 the winner of the Kentucky Derby has gone on to win the Preakness more often than not.  In another two years, the winner of the Preakness has gone on to win the Belmont.  

Point Given and Afleet Alex just missed in the Derby but then crushed their competition in the Preakness and Belmont.  Afleet Alex almost fell to his knees in the Preakness and then recovered to pull away.  Point Given never lost another race in his life after dropping the Derby.  These were super horses that just couldn’t get it done in the Derby.  But how can one fail to see that these horses were vastly better than their peer groups?  

If winning the Triple Crown were truly unachieveable, there would not be such a tight shot pattern in the outcome of the Triple Crown races.  The results point to the simple truth that there is clear differentiation in the development of three year old racehorses.  There are stand outs.  There are freaks.

I’ll go on record to say that if Big Brown stays healthy enough to make it to the Belmont starting gate, he will easily win the Triple Crown this year.  But even if he doesn’t it is just a matter of time. 

So I’m off to New York again to witness history.  Tickets are booked.  I’m looking forward to dinner with Andy and Monica again.  Calvin is older now and I’m not as worried about his heart breaking if Big Brown gets run down in the stretch.  But he has a little brother now, Phillip, who will be cheering for Big Brown without really knowing why or understanding the significance of what Big Brown will be attempting.  Without consciense, I’ll get Phillip all pumped up for the Belmont.  The emotion he will feel with the win I expect to happen is worth the risk of another Smarty let-down.  And if Big Brown disappoints us, ice cream’s on me.   Again.

Year Derby Winner – Preakness Winner

1998 Real Quiet – Real Quiet

1999 Charismatic - Charismatic

2000 Fu Peg – Red Bullet

2001  Monarchos – Point Given

2002  War Emblem – War Emblem

2003  Funny Cide – Funny Cide

2004  Smarty Jones – Smarty Jones

2005  Giacomo – Afleet Alex

2006  Barbaro - Bernardini

2007  Street Sense – Curlin

2008 Big Brown – Big Brown