Here are some thoughts on the contenders in the 2008 Kentucky Derby…

1. Cool Coal Man - likely pace casualty, but at least he got the rail when all the other speed will be to the outside making sure Big Brown gets a miserable trip.  Bluegrass tossout (another year, another “I don’t get it” Bluegrass result).  Can’t see him getting a piece but he could play the rabbit.
2. Tale of Ekati - Another run like the Wood and he could factor, but I think the winner will come from further back than where this guy likes to hang out. 
3. Anak Nakai - my computer program picked him last but I think he is not that good.  Does not belong here.  But I hope some day I can be a wealthy horse owner and can have a horse with enough earnings to qualify for the Derby so I can enter him and hang out at all the Derby events and hear people say my horse does not belong.  Yes, that would be sweet.
4. Court Vision - He could get it done.  Has the breeding to run all day.  But that is the problem, the race is usually over and he is still running all day.  The trick will be to get him to run sooner in the day.  Would not be a huge shock.
5. Eight Belles - She’s no Rags To Riches.  My program picked her out of the money in the Oaks.  So imagine how she compares to colts.  Lots of backing but I don’t think so.
6. Z Fortune - strong as a 2yo, and seems to have improved as a 3yo.  Likes to find trouble, partially due to his late running style.  Arkansas Derby was wide both time and still almost got it done.  Good value at what will likely be >15:1.
7. Big Truck - There are much better horses running today with the word “Big” in their name. 
8. Visionaire - Closed ground in the Bluegrass, and has shown some ability to pass horses late, but looks like it would take a big pace collapse.  Reminds me of Giacomo.
9. Pyro - Even if I toss the Bluegrass result (as everyone does every year for every horse these days) I’m still not convinced he is good enough.  Louisiana Derby result seems like forever ago.  Was strong as a 2yo.  Not so sure he is a strong 3yo.
10. Colonel John - I’m convinced he is more than a plastic surface phenom, something we all strive to be.  But I’m not sure he is fast enough.  Untested east of the Mississippi is a red flag for me.  Great works at Churchill, but has not faced the same caliber of horses as many in here.
11. Z Humor - there are better horses in the race today with the letter Z in the front of their name.
12. Smooth Air - definite wise guy play.  Second place effort to Big Brown in Florida Derby got him a 105 Beyer.  Hello?  Says something for including both Florida Derby exacta horses in your exotics today.  Odds of 20:1 look good too.
13. Bob Black Jack - Speed casualty.  This is not the year to be a speed horse in the Derby!  As if any year it is a plus, this year in particular.
14. Monba - Don’t like the name.  What’s a Monba?  Bluegrass opportunist gets Pletcher another shot at sustaining his 0-fer standings in the Derby.
15. Adriano - the only thing I like about him is the fact that Prado opted off of horses that looked better on paper to ride him today.  I’m not a big jock handicapper, but Prado is that good.  It’s like when the best looking girl in high school goes to the prom with a zit-faced kid that plays in the band.  What’s he got that I ain’t got?
16. Denis of Cork - My sleeper special.  Closes with a bang when he closes, which is every time except the Illinois Derby.  Got a poor trip, but they hand out poor trip vouchers at the starting gate in the Derby.  Still, at 20:1 I think he belongs in my exotics.
17. Cowboy Cal - Pletcher’s other Keeneland opportunist and other best shot at remaining winless in the Derby.
18. Recapturetheglory - One of Big Brown’s big problems.  Speed to his inside from a ridiculously outside post.  If you want to bet a speedy horse in the auxiliary gate, choose one whose name has two adjectives in it.
19. Gayego - Big Brown’s other big problem.  See statement above about which speed horse to bet from the auxiliary gate.
20. Big Brown - I hope he doesn’t win just so that we don’t have a Derby winner with such a lame name.  Aren’t most horses relatively big, and a good number of them also brown?  Every year we get the super freak, undefeated but lightly raced horse that crashes the Derby scene.  I avoid them every year and it has never cost me a penny.  This year that freak is in the far outside post with two speedy horses to his immediate inside position and the best speed horse in the race sitting on the pole all alone.  If he is good enough to win today, he should win the Triple Crown.  So get a $2 win ticket on him just in case.

 I recommend spreading your exotics far and wide and hoping Big Brown flops.  Exotics will pay well in that scenario.  Even if Big Brown wins, putting the right place and show horses with him could pay very well.  Best of luck!