With many trainers and owners choosing to be more choosy about the number and placement of their aspiring Derby horses’ prep races it is increasingly important for these horses to win those big races.  Some of us handicappers like to a horse hold form once if not twice.  For many horses in this year’s Derby hunt, the pattern looks very similar… one or two nice finishes in Grade I company and one or two wins in Grade II or Grade III company.  Followed by a huge flop in major prep race.  Is it asking all that much for a winner to act like a winner?

Someone has to win those big prep races.  So obviously someone stepped up.  That much is certain.  Problem is that if it is not the horse who was supposed to win, the favorite looks remarkably vulnerable and a horse that no one was even thinking seriously about suddenly becomes a contender.  Damn!

Here are some examples of the pattern I describe:

Case 1 - Pyro.  Nice finish in the Champaigne and then the BC Juvenile. Wins in a Grade II and Grade III.  His moment in the sun was the Blue Grass Stakes.  Sent off as an even money favorite.  The result:  ran up the track.  Even given the creepy synthetic surface at Keeneland, this result was tough to digest.  Hard to find a viable excuse.

Case 2 –  Court Vision.  Well bred and perfect running style for the classic distance.  First in Grade II and a Grade III stakes races.  Third in the FOY but closed well to impress some people.  His prove-it race came in the Wood Memorial.  Second choice but well bet and a fairly weak field to boot.  Result:  another strong close that fell short.  For the Court Vision fans, his prove-it race now moves to the first Saturday in May.  Agh.  Not the best time to do it.

Case 3 – El Gato Malo.  First in minor prep, then first in a Grade III and second in a Grade II.  Sets him up for his big “get ‘er done” opportunity in the Santa Anita Derby.  Result:  A 4-wide bid that flattened out to finish fifth.  Another beaten favorite limps into Louisville.

Case 4 – War Pass.  Eh, by now you get the point. 

It isn’t all bad.  There have been a few horses who didn’t wilt under the heat lamps.  It took some looking but here are a few winning favorites.

Case A – Big Brown.  Not much build up to the Florida Derby, just a couple of blowout wins in maiden and allowance company.  But that was enough to make him the 3:2 favorite in the Florida Derby.  That says something about the level of talent in the race, but that’s another story.  Result:  Big Brown held serve and crushed the field, overcoming an outside post and fast early fractions.  But some handicappers won’t touch a horse so inexperienced coming into the Derby.  I’m usually one of them.

Case B – Colonel John.  First in a minor stakes race.  First in a Grade III.  Second in a Grade I.  Finds himself a well bet second choice in the Santa Anita Derby.  Result:  convincing win in nice, off the pace, Derby style.  Nice going Colonel! 

Case C – Gayego.  Like the others, proven in lesser graded company, including a gutsy effort to finish second in the San Felipe.  Finds himself a tepid favorite in the Arkansas Derby.  But at least he got it done from there.  When it was show time, he showed up.  It is one thing to beat a soft field and not settle any debate about your ability to win the Derby.  It’s another to lose to the soft field.

I thought one of the promises of artificial surfaces is to reduce the soreness that racing causes in horses, so they can stay healthy and get back on the track more quickly.  Polytrack (and the like) also promise to reduce the risk of catastrophic injury to the competitors.  Both of these promises, if delivered, should increase the number of prep races in which any given horse is able to compete. But it is too soon to tell if either of those promises holds any weight, and it won’t help anyone this year.

In the mean time, how bad has this year’s prep season been that if I’m looking for a horse that can hold form I have nothing better to choose from than a horse with three races lifetime and two west coasters?  Yuk.  On the bright side, it could be a good year to find a sleeper at a nice price.