by Ralph the Cat

So, the experts say horse racing is dying, last year they decided the breed was dying too.  Well, since I’m no expert, I figured I’d waste a few minutes of my life suggesting a few things for next year, because if I’m wrong, who the hell cares.  By the way, the only time an “expert” in horse racing sticks his chin out is when they suggest something that can never really be proven.  Well, when I’m right about what I’m going to suggest, I want you to refer to me as an expert for the rest of my life.  When I die, I want you to mark on my tombstone, Ralph the “Expert”, rather than Ralph the “cat”.  Because 50 years later I don’t want them digging my corpse up because they think someone accidentally buried a cat in my family plot. 

 So anyways, here’s the deal, since horse racing is dying, and synthetic tracks aren’t safer then dirt according to the experts.  I just want to predict 2 things.  First, breakdown ratios over synthetics will be at a lower rate then over dirt across the nation.  Number 2, the boldest one of the two, Handle will be up across the nation.  So there it is.  What will we say if I’m right?  Horse racing is growing? its rebounding?  I don’t know, we’ll leave that to the experts.  Everyone else has the world of horse racing figured out, I just live in it.

By Ralph the Cat

 We all strive to be successful handicappers.  I have to laugh each time I hear these peculiar handicappers say “handicapping is an art” or “handicapping is a science”.  I often think they’re just trying to get in touch with their intellectual side when they make those statements.  Yes, I’m sure there’s science and art involved in handicapping, but last I checked, science can’t measure the unpredictable, and how ever you want to define art as, there’s no one on the planet that has mastered the “art” of handicapping.  If you want to define art as a “craft” or a “trait” then go for it, but a craft or a trait is usually something one can master. 

The newest one I heard was that handicapping is a philosophy.  Last I checked the philosophy of something has a set laws that can prove it.  The only law of handicapping is that no matter what the outcome of the race is, someone’s going to be pissed. 

 If anything, handicapping is a hit and miss based on theory, a proposed methodology with an unverified explanation.  

 One mans theory of handicapping utilizes a methodology of figures, Beyer figures.  Beyer figures have led more blind players astray then any factor in horses racing.  Super-trainers, jockeys, crooked connections, vets, none of them add up to the amount of mislead bets than that of Beyer figures.  Beyer figures are the single most misleading bit of information in American racing. 

 When one handicapper even remotely suggests Beyer figures are misleading or not worth a nickel, one is subject to “you don’t know how to use them”.  The claim is that when used properly, you can employ them in a useful manner and that those that doubt them don’t know how to use them properly or fail to understand the core concepts of them.  This might be the biggest bullshit in the handicapping world.  One thing that I’m confident I could predict is that Andy Beyer will not come close to picking this year’s Kentucky Derby winner, just like that last decade or more.  If the man that created the “Beyer Figures” can’t utilize the numbers to churn a profit or suggest winners, then why believe they are “a large part of successful handicappers”.  The truth of the matter is, they are the most overrated bit of handicapping information known to man.  They have led more bettors astray and caused heavy money to go in the wrong direction because of one concept, it’s a methodology based on science, math and human opinion.  A Beyer number suggests nothing but one mans opinion of a race based on information he chose to use.  One can only suggest that his numbers are used far more than they need to be.  I can’t help but think, the ability to read and digest the information from a past performance is becoming a lost line of attack.

 Beyer figures, credible? Sure, one mans methodology based on opinion is always credible. 

 Ya, and I’m a cat

Much has been written recently concerning what’s wrong with horse racing, and not without justification.  There are, without a doubt, many flaws in need of repair.  But let’s focus on some positives for a moment and look at some things that are right about the sport we love.

1.)  Bet a little, win a lot…..Sure, you can do that with the lottery or a slot machine, too, but that’s pure luck.  There’s a great feeling of satisfaction that comes with handicapping races correctly and winning as a result.  Long live the $.50 Pick Four!

2.)  The fun of going to the track…..Not only is there the excitement of the races themselves, but it’s a great place for people-watching, a microcosm of society.  Rich, poor, winners, losers, and everything in between.

3.)  ADWs…..If you have a computer, bet and watch from the comfort of your own home.  I know, there are ADW wars going on among themselves and with the horsemen, and yes, you have to maintain multiple accounts if you want access to all tracks.  But what better mental exercise is there than to sit at your computer on a snowy Monday night and handicap a Pick 3 at Mountaineer. (Come to think of it, handicapping any race at Mountaineer at any time is the ultimate mental challenge.)

4.)  Guys like Liam Durbin…..I can hear the brown-nosing accusations already, but this gentleman is the real deal.  Ever since the days of the Digital Chalk Line, Liam has been providing sound info and innovation to horseplayers at little or no cost.  Racing needs more people like him.

5.)  The animals themselves…..magnificent…..beauty, speed, grace, athleticism…..all in one package.  I have recently entered into a partnership to claim a horse to race at Charles Town.  I’ll be a 1% owner  (last of the big spenders.)  But I’ll tell ya, when I see that horse coming down the stretch with the colors of my stable, it will be the thrill of a lifetime.

So for those of us with a passion for this game, there is indeed a lot that is right with it.  Oh yeah, I almost forgot…..

6.)  Maylan Studart

Later…..richinboston