By Ralph the Cat

Both men have earned great success in our sport, but both appear to be at a war with words.  It’s hard to look like a fool when you’re up against Richard Dutrow, but Andrew Beyer manages too.  Dutrow, who in 2008 trained both the top 3 year old Big Brown and the top sprinter Benny The Bull sent out This Ones For Phil in the Sunshine Millions Dash this past weekend.  After the even money favorite You Luckie Mann and Ju Jitsu Jax set early fast fractions of :22.23, :44.96 and :56.75, the fast charging This Ones For Phil cruised by to score in 1:09.10 at odds of 12-1.  This Ones For Phil earned a career best Beyer of 117 and finished a second off the track record. 

 It didn’t take long for the name calling to begin.  Andrew Beyer made statements in a recent article that This Ones For Phil’s performance was everything that’s wrong with American racing.  Beyer noted that before this performance This Ones For Phil’s highest Beyer figure was an 81 set in his 2 year old season.  He also made note that this performance was a 15 length improvement from his prior effort.

 Dutrow spoke out several days later suggesting there were several things that got the 3 year old gelding to improve while also noting Beyer’s number could be off.  Dutrow suggested the rigorous training and racing during his 2 year old season caused him some minor problems and weight lose that he was able to improve with a few months of down time.

 It occurred to me that Beyer might be more caught up on the horse earning the 117 figure than the horses’ actual performance.  I took a closer look to see just what Beyer is so mad about.  Is it the number or the performance?  There’s two questions that need answered.  Is it unrealistic to think the horse could improve and is the number even accurate?

 Let us look at the improvement first, because there’s no doubt the horse made an improvement.  The horse started out in Kathleen O’Connells barn, an 11% trainer in 2008.  The horse broke its maiden in July with an impressive 6 length victory in only his 3^rd start as a 2 year old.  His next start was a 5^thplace finish in 100K stake race, where he only ran 3 lengths behind a horse called “You Luckie Mann”.  His next start he stretched out to a mile distance where he blew clear to win by more than 4 lengths in a non-restricted 2 year old stake race at Calder.  After his first stakes win going 1 mile he stretched out even further to run 2^nd in another stakes race and then a disappointing 5^th and a 3^rd in his next two route races.  The horse finished 2008 with 2 wins including 1 stake victory and $90,340 in 8 starts.  Richard Dutrow and his “Posse” approached Kathleen O’Connell and company to purchase the 2 year old stakes winner for what is believed to be in the 6 figures.  The horse spent two and half months training in the Dutrow barn before exploding to an impressive victory that Beyer called “everything wrong with American racing”.  The horse ran 8 races in less than 5 months as a 2 year old and won a 2 year old stakes race in that time with an 11% trainer.  Is it that hard to believe Richard Dutrow got this horse to win a non-graded restricted stakes race such as the Sunshine Millions Dash by 2 lengths in his 3 year old debut?

 Is Beyer’s methodology even accurate or useable for that matter?  They say you can’t compare Beyer numbers from track to track and from week to week.  So then why fuss about them?  Beyer rewarded Benny The Bull a 115 in 2007 after winning by more than 4 lengths and setting a track record of 1:08.2 at GulfstreamPark in the state restricted-Sunshine Millions Sprint, which is a race with no age restriction.  Yet, This Ones For Phil runs a 1:09.1 and only wins by 2 lengths in a state restricted stakes race for 3 year olds and receives an incredible 117.  Hell, Curlin hadn’t received a Beyer figure of more than 117 since his win in the Breeders Cup Classic in 2007, where he earned a Beyer figure of 119.  Is it me or is Andrew Beyer losing his mind over a flawed methodology that he created?

 The last thing that gets me is Beyer claims the horse improved 15 lengths in his first start with Dutrow.  His last 4 starts were in stake races at the route distance.  Most importantly, his last race was a 1 1/16^th turf stakes.  How can we conclude a 15 length improvement was made in his recent 6 furlong dirt sprint win when he hadn’t run a sprint in more than 5 months?  Isn’t this horse racing 101?  Oh, by the way, he beat “You Lucky Mann” by 2 lengths in this brilliant performance this past week, which is the same horse he lost to by 3 lengths in his last 6 furlong race more than 5 months ago.  The horse improved 5 lengths more than “You Lucky Mann” did over the course of 5+ months with the help of Richard Dutrow, a Kentucky Derby winning trainer.  Earth to Andy Beyer, did you even look at the horse’s past performance lines before you screamed “cheater”?

Ralph