The last time I booked a trip to Elmont, New York was to watch Smarty Jones take a shot at the Triple Crown.  The whole nation was abuzz with Smarty fever.   I took the opportunity to have dinner with some good friends, Andy and Monica.  We talked about old times and Smarty Jones.  About 20 hours later I shuffled out of Belmont Park like so many, my head hung low. 

As an experienced horse racing enthusiast, I knew it was over when they turned for home and Birdstone was gobbling up ground on Smarty Jones.  The heavy favorite was fried by a blistering pace.  Trudging out to my car, my stack of souvenier $2 win tickets still in my hand, I knew there would be no objection, no disqualification.  No doubt it was over, but it was still hard to let go.   I knew I’d have to face Andy and Monica’s three year old, Calvin, and try to explain what happened.  I’d made the mistake of talking up Smarty Jones to Calvin the night prior. 

“No, Calvin, Smarty Jones won’t be able to try next year.  It doesn’t work that way.”

That one was the worst ever, but there have been many close calls in recent years.  Each one seems to suck more life out of the Triple Crown hopeful.  Instead of giving us another Triple Crown winner, racing has given us horrific accidents like those of Barbaro and Eight Belles.  This year we have a great shot at a Triple Crown winner and it feels to me that the emotion surrounding his shot at doing it is somewhat subdued.  It could be that the nation is just afraid to get their hopes up. 

But my spirits have never been better about seeing a Triple Crown winner.  Even though each near miss is followed by the usual steady stream of theories why the Triple Crown has become too hard, (breeding, not enough rest between races, damaging surface) I let it roll right off my back.  Because it simply doesn’t make any sense.  I find the Triple Crown finishes in recent years to be extremely encouraging.  For example – since  1998 the winner of the Kentucky Derby has gone on to win the Preakness more often than not.  In another two years, the winner of the Preakness has gone on to win the Belmont.  

Point Given and Afleet Alex just missed in the Derby but then crushed their competition in the Preakness and Belmont.  Afleet Alex almost fell to his knees in the Preakness and then recovered to pull away.  Point Given never lost another race in his life after dropping the Derby.  These were super horses that just couldn’t get it done in the Derby.  But how can one fail to see that these horses were vastly better than their peer groups?  

If winning the Triple Crown were truly unachieveable, there would not be such a tight shot pattern in the outcome of the Triple Crown races.  The results point to the simple truth that there is clear differentiation in the development of three year old racehorses.  There are stand outs.  There are freaks.

I’ll go on record to say that if Big Brown stays healthy enough to make it to the Belmont starting gate, he will easily win the Triple Crown this year.  But even if he doesn’t it is just a matter of time. 

So I’m off to New York again to witness history.  Tickets are booked.  I’m looking forward to dinner with Andy and Monica again.  Calvin is older now and I’m not as worried about his heart breaking if Big Brown gets run down in the stretch.  But he has a little brother now, Phillip, who will be cheering for Big Brown without really knowing why or understanding the significance of what Big Brown will be attempting.  Without consciense, I’ll get Phillip all pumped up for the Belmont.  The emotion he will feel with the win I expect to happen is worth the risk of another Smarty let-down.  And if Big Brown disappoints us, ice cream’s on me.   Again.

Year Derby Winner – Preakness Winner

1998 Real Quiet – Real Quiet

1999 Charismatic - Charismatic

2000 Fu Peg – Red Bullet

2001  Monarchos – Point Given

2002  War Emblem – War Emblem

2003  Funny Cide – Funny Cide

2004  Smarty Jones – Smarty Jones

2005  Giacomo – Afleet Alex

2006  Barbaro - Bernardini

2007  Street Sense – Curlin

2008 Big Brown – Big Brown

Here are some thoughts on the contenders in the 2008 Kentucky Derby…

1. Cool Coal Man - likely pace casualty, but at least he got the rail when all the other speed will be to the outside making sure Big Brown gets a miserable trip.  Bluegrass tossout (another year, another “I don’t get it” Bluegrass result).  Can’t see him getting a piece but he could play the rabbit.
2. Tale of Ekati - Another run like the Wood and he could factor, but I think the winner will come from further back than where this guy likes to hang out. 
3. Anak Nakai - my computer program picked him last but I think he is not that good.  Does not belong here.  But I hope some day I can be a wealthy horse owner and can have a horse with enough earnings to qualify for the Derby so I can enter him and hang out at all the Derby events and hear people say my horse does not belong.  Yes, that would be sweet.
4. Court Vision - He could get it done.  Has the breeding to run all day.  But that is the problem, the race is usually over and he is still running all day.  The trick will be to get him to run sooner in the day.  Would not be a huge shock.
5. Eight Belles - She’s no Rags To Riches.  My program picked her out of the money in the Oaks.  So imagine how she compares to colts.  Lots of backing but I don’t think so.
6. Z Fortune - strong as a 2yo, and seems to have improved as a 3yo.  Likes to find trouble, partially due to his late running style.  Arkansas Derby was wide both time and still almost got it done.  Good value at what will likely be >15:1.
7. Big Truck - There are much better horses running today with the word “Big” in their name. 
8. Visionaire - Closed ground in the Bluegrass, and has shown some ability to pass horses late, but looks like it would take a big pace collapse.  Reminds me of Giacomo.
9. Pyro - Even if I toss the Bluegrass result (as everyone does every year for every horse these days) I’m still not convinced he is good enough.  Louisiana Derby result seems like forever ago.  Was strong as a 2yo.  Not so sure he is a strong 3yo.
10. Colonel John - I’m convinced he is more than a plastic surface phenom, something we all strive to be.  But I’m not sure he is fast enough.  Untested east of the Mississippi is a red flag for me.  Great works at Churchill, but has not faced the same caliber of horses as many in here.
11. Z Humor - there are better horses in the race today with the letter Z in the front of their name.
12. Smooth Air - definite wise guy play.  Second place effort to Big Brown in Florida Derby got him a 105 Beyer.  Hello?  Says something for including both Florida Derby exacta horses in your exotics today.  Odds of 20:1 look good too.
13. Bob Black Jack - Speed casualty.  This is not the year to be a speed horse in the Derby!  As if any year it is a plus, this year in particular.
14. Monba - Don’t like the name.  What’s a Monba?  Bluegrass opportunist gets Pletcher another shot at sustaining his 0-fer standings in the Derby.
15. Adriano - the only thing I like about him is the fact that Prado opted off of horses that looked better on paper to ride him today.  I’m not a big jock handicapper, but Prado is that good.  It’s like when the best looking girl in high school goes to the prom with a zit-faced kid that plays in the band.  What’s he got that I ain’t got?
16. Denis of Cork - My sleeper special.  Closes with a bang when he closes, which is every time except the Illinois Derby.  Got a poor trip, but they hand out poor trip vouchers at the starting gate in the Derby.  Still, at 20:1 I think he belongs in my exotics.
17. Cowboy Cal - Pletcher’s other Keeneland opportunist and other best shot at remaining winless in the Derby.
18. Recapturetheglory - One of Big Brown’s big problems.  Speed to his inside from a ridiculously outside post.  If you want to bet a speedy horse in the auxiliary gate, choose one whose name has two adjectives in it.
19. Gayego - Big Brown’s other big problem.  See statement above about which speed horse to bet from the auxiliary gate.
20. Big Brown - I hope he doesn’t win just so that we don’t have a Derby winner with such a lame name.  Aren’t most horses relatively big, and a good number of them also brown?  Every year we get the super freak, undefeated but lightly raced horse that crashes the Derby scene.  I avoid them every year and it has never cost me a penny.  This year that freak is in the far outside post with two speedy horses to his immediate inside position and the best speed horse in the race sitting on the pole all alone.  If he is good enough to win today, he should win the Triple Crown.  So get a $2 win ticket on him just in case.

 I recommend spreading your exotics far and wide and hoping Big Brown flops.  Exotics will pay well in that scenario.  Even if Big Brown wins, putting the right place and show horses with him could pay very well.  Best of luck!