Time to Bounce the Bounce Theory

Liam Durbin

The Kentucky Derby will be run for the 138^th time on May 5^th this year.  Over the course of those many races, many myths and theories have emerged about characteristics a horse must have or what patterns he must follow to win the Derby.  It is only logical that any sporting event that gets as much publicity and pubic scrutiny as the Kentucky Derby would eventually develop some folklore around it.  The Derby is so popular of a puzzle to solve that new metrics such as the Dosage Index have been invented for the sole purpose of predicting the outcome of the Derby.  And then the Dosage Index itself became the basis for another mysterious Derby statistic.  But after 138 years, the creation of new myths has about run its course and each year, more of the existing ones get blown up.  Last year Animal Kingdom won the Derby despite never having raced on real dirt prior to the race. Another one down.

It is acceptable when analysts use statistics to discuss the fact that a certain event has not yet happened, but it is extremely misleading when they use that statistic to predict that it should not happen in the future.  The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile jinx is an example of a myth that was frequently used to predict the future when it really had no business being used for anything other than observing history.  Experts would discuss the entries for an upcoming Derby and would say that in 18 years no Juvenile winner had ever won the Derby.  But anyone with half a brain and a grasp of fifth grade math would see the problem with this approach.  The vast majority of Juvenile winners are never entered in the Kentucky Derby.  Of those that have made it to the starting gate, they have run reasonably well and their chances in the Derby are certainly no worse than any other horse.  Street Sense put and end to that pointless myth in 2007.

Another popular Derby theory that continues to this day, despite any foundation in reason or statistics is the Bounce Theory.  The Bounce Theory says that a horse will regress off of a really strong effort and throw in a dud in his next start.  This theory is often applied to the Derby to explain why an otherwise strong contender should be avoided in the Derby.  This year’s bounce candidate, it seems, is Bodemeister, who comes to the Derby off a nine length victory in the Arkansas Derby.

If the Bounce Theory were to be applied to human athletes, it would say that Michael Jordan, coming off a game where he scored 15 points more than his average would score below his average in his next game.  There is no statistical basis for a prediction like that.  Nobody thinks this way when it comes to human athletes, so it should not be done when referring to equine athletes.

Do horses sometimes regress off a race?  Of course.  But as three year olds, most horses are improving with each race, not going backwards.  Using a very strong performance to predict a poor performance, amongst a group of athletes that are collectively improving rapidly is illogical.  Someone will win the Kentucky Derby on Saturday.  To do it, they will have to run the race of their lives.  Intuitively, it is more likely to be a horse coming in off a strong effort as opposed to a weak one.  Therefore throwing out horses for very strong efforts in prep races because they might bounce will be the wrong decision more often than the right one.

“THE KENTUCKY DERBY: HOW THE RUN FOR THE ROSES BECAME AMERICA’S PREMIER SPORTING EVENT” Book review by Liam Durbin / [URL="http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/ae/book-reviews/americas-premier-sporting-event-why-the-kentucky-derby-captivates-633523/"]Pittsburgh Post-Gazette[/URL]Author:  James C. Nicholson
Your first reaction to “The Kentucky Derby: How the Run for the Roses Became America’s Premier Sporting Event” will be: this book is exceedingly thorough and well-researched. The first few chapters firmly establish it as a suitable reference guide for anyone who wants to know more about the history of the Kentucky Derby. Through each period covered in the book, James C. Nicholson does a brilliant job of finding and using documents to support his points.
However, the book is much more than reference material. Clearly, the author has a fondness for Kentucky that he wants to give to his readers. He is not content with educating readers about the Derby. He wants them to understand why Kentucky was uniquely positioned to incubate an event that could captivate the nation.
As an example, by its location, Kentucky is just Southern enough to borrow from all the favorable traditions and stereotypes of the South, but not so Southern that it becomes tarnished by the less desirable history of the deep South, specifically where it pertains to racism and segregation. Kentucky’s position in the center of the country worked well as a gathering place before air travel was available.
The relationship between Kentucky and her beloved bourbon became integral to the fabric of the Kentucky Derby. During Prohibition, the Derby and bourbon kept their affair alive, and both came out stronger on the other side. Personally, I’ve never cared for mint juleps. But having read the book, I now feel a bit ashamed for not drinking one, and drinking to Kentucky’s history, when I go to the Derby. (This year, when I go, I intend to have one.)
Mr. Nicholson’s love of Kentucky comes through frequently by his choice of quotes. Here’s one from the Louisville Times in 1975: “The Kentucky Derby is more than a horse race. It’s an American institution, perhaps the only one left. The Derby has survived a hundred springs, despite wars and riots, despite panics, depressions, recessions. It flourishes because everyone believes it’s a ritual handed down from a more elegant century. The Derby’s anachronistic caress soothes the nation with visions of bluegrass farms and mint juleps and Kentucky colonels.”
Similarly, the author wants you to love Kentuckians. You cannot help but come away from this book feeling that they are savvy business people, brilliant marketers, sports enthusiasts, people passionate about a champion, a comeback, a longshot or an underdog, and yes — even blessed by God. The survival and success of the Derby was not so predetermined that it could not have happened without the likes of great Kentuckians such as Merriwether Lewis Clark Jr. and Colonel Matt Winn. But the author implies there is little doubt God wanted the race to survive, and that he likely continues to enjoy the event today.
Upon reading this book, you will watch the race with a different perspective and appreciation. This year’s Kentucky Derby is Saturday.

By Liam Durbin

Consistency is a very important consideration in choosing a Derby horse.  This time last year the early Kentucky Derby favorites were busy not winning their prep races.

Uncle Mo, the Juvenile winner and early Derby favorite was resting on his laurels, choosing not to race at all  until the middle of March, when he sprinted a mere eight furlongs to win the Timely Writer.  That meaningless victory was enough to hold his position as the popular Derby choice, at least until his dull effort in the Wood Memorial.  To Honor And Serve, another over-hyped horse ran third as the favorite in the Fountain of Youth.  Stay Thirsty won as the favorite in the Gotham, but then threw in a dud in the Florida Derby.  By the time the Derby rolled around, all of the Derby favorites who were sent off the favorite in their final prep had lost that last prep race.  This turned out to be a predictor of inconsistency that continued throughout the Triple Crown.

This year, horse racing amongst three year olds looks much different.  Even though it is early, we are seeing much better form from these Derby hopefuls.  El Padrino held of Mark Valeski as the 4:5 favorite in the Risen Star.  He showed a lot of heart to battle a determined Mark Veleski down the stretch, to win at the wire by a nose.  Coming into the race, El Padrino was well hyped but had never won a graded stakes race.  As the odd-on choice, he had a lot to prove.  And he got it done.

Juvenile champion, Hansen, also had a lot to prove in the Gotham Stakes after having been beaten badly in the Holy Bull.  Not only did he lose the Holy Bull to Algorithms, he tired in the stretch, confirming many racing fans’ suspicions that his front-running style would be a liability in Derby preps as well as the Derby itself.  Despite that loss, Hansen was the 4:5 favorite in the Gotham.  Not only did Hansen win going away, but he overcame his outside post position and being forced wide on the first turn.  He also came from a bit off the pace, which he had never done before.

Finally, the Fountain of Youth brought back the Juvenile runner-up, Union Rags, for his three year old debut.  Union Rags would be sent off as a strong favorite, at odds of 6:5.  In similar fashion as Hansen and El Padrino, Union Rags ran the way a 6:5 favorite is supposed to run, pulling away in a hand ride at the top of the stretch.

Of the three prep races, the most impressive, and indicative of future success, was Union Rags.  Regardless of the level of competition, racing surface, or other race-specific conditions, he ran true to his form and breeding, and displayed the sort of kick necessary to win the Derby.  Hansen did a lot to disprove concerns about his distance capability, but a lot of handicappers will want to see one more effort before dismissing his poor effort in the Holy Bull.  Even his win in the Juvenile was a nail biter, with Union Rags getting to him late.  It will be much harder to wire the Kentucky Derby than it was the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  El Padrino’s performance was gutsy, but many handicappers would have liked to have seen him power past Mark Velesi with some authority instead of winning by just a nose.

In horse racing, particularly three year olds, a lot can change from one race to the next.  Since these horses are developing quite rapidly at this point in their racing careers, consistency is often hard to find.  That said, this year’s early Derby favorites are giving horse racing fans a lot to be excited about.  If any of them can hold form in their next (and likely final) prep race, they will come to Churchill Downs very well positioned to win.

New York Board of Stewards Say No To Horse of a Different Color

By Liam Durbin, E-ponies.com

Permission is something people hate to give.  It is no wonder that many people find it easier to beg forgiveness after the fact than get it up front.  Dr. Hansen, owner of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion, Hansen, is likely wishing he had not tried to get permission to color his horse’s tail and mane in the upcoming Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct.  He (foolishly) sought permission up front and gave the New York Board of Stewards chance to deny his request.  Quite naturally, the board did deny the request.  That’s what boards do.  Boards made up of stewards – forget about it!

I know there are many racing enthusiasts who side with the stewards.  Some have said that it makes a mockery of the champion or of the sport itself.  I certainly see their point.  In fact, I kind of agree that it does paint the sport in a different light.  Allowing the horse’s tail and mane to be colored could be the start of a trip down a slippery slope.  Where might it end?  Perhaps with promotional material painted, branded, or sheared onto the horses’ back sides in the Kentucky Derby or Breeders’ Cup.  I suppose all of that is possible.  I’m just not sure it would be all that regrettable.

Here’s the problem.  The “no” response made sense in the pre-Twitter and pre-FaceBook age.  We are no longer living in that age.  We are in the age of social media and continuous news cycles.  We are coincidentally in the age when horse racing is declining and no one in the industry has a good plan on how to reverse the decline.  The fact that the request was denied has made the news.  Just imagine how big the story would have been if Dr. Hansen had actually done it.  Or better yet, Dr. Hansen’s proposal to allow fans to decide what color to paint the horse could have been even bigger news.  In 2012, people are talking.  Why not give them something to talk about in horse racing?

In the final three minutes of the Superbowl, Twitter was lit up by 10,000 tweets per second!  Horse racing should be getting its fair share on big racing days.  Who is thinking about building this base?  Perhaps Dr. Hansen was.  I know I am.  For my small business, I’m working hard to fight above my weight in social media.

In their response to Dr. Hansen, the board said, “we feel there is no sustaining merit to the request.”  Really? How about people tweeting about it, talking about it on Facebook?  How about the next generation of horse racing fans watching their first race for the first time just to see the colorful horse?

The Board went on to say, “Clearly, Hansen would be highlighted by this color change, and we would expect similar requests from other owners.”  Oh, the horror!  More requests?!

It is not as if this request is displacing other great ideas on the “Great Ideas To Promote Horse Racing To The Next Generation” list.  If the stewards don’t like this, what else do they have?

Saying “yes” takes more thought than saying “no.”  It just does.  A positive response requires the board to think about what good could come from the decision, anticipate any negative responses, and be prepared to convert the dialog back down a positive track.

In dire times, like horse racing faces now, there is something to be said for trying things even if the outcome is not completely known.

I applaud Dr. Hansen’s efforts to get people talking about horse racing.  I hope next time he decides to beg forgiveness rather than asking permission.

By Liam Durbin

Rapid Redux has now won 20 races in a row and 18 races this calendar year.  With the 20 wins in a row, he has passed the great Zenyatta who failed to get her 20^th in a row in losing to Blame in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year.  With two more wins in 2011, he would surpass Citation, who has held the single season win record since 1948.  Amongst Citation’s many accomplishments is a Triple Crown and induction into the Hall of Fame.  Many consider Citation to be the best race horse ever.  Rapid Redux is no Zenyatta, nor is he another Citation, but the accomplishment is significant nonetheless.

To surpass Zenyatta, Rapid Redux had to string together wins.  That is difficult in any sport but it is particularly difficult in horse racing.  Racing luck plays a much bigger part in the outcome than does regular luck in other sporting events.  You could make the case that NASCAR has very similar elements of luck to it, where congestion, collisions and wrecks can have an enormous randomizing effect on the outcome.  But I don’t really follow NASCAR so there could be scads of racing fans that would be quick to object to that comparison.

But my point is that racing luck is the primary reason why the best horse does not always win any given race.  The rate at which a horse other than the best horse wins is a subjective assessment.  In a typical, competitive field, I would say that the best horse wins somewhere between 60%-75% of the time.

Rapid Redux was well placed to string together wins.  He did not climb the class ladder like many horses do.  Instead, he was carefully placed in starter allowance races of a consistent level of quality.  In addition, the field size in his last ten races was an average of six horses, with the largest being just eight.  With his record-breaking run, the field size was just four horses total.

All this is just to say that his owners and trainer chose his races well.  Winning them was another matter.  Heavy favorites lose with regularity, even in small fields.  Just staying healthy enough to race so frequently is a huge challenge at any level of racing.  So credit is due for winning so many in a row.  He beat the odds, even if he didn’t beat particularly good horses.

It is worth noting that Rapid Redux has won at many different distances and over many different courses.  To his credit he has won over off tracks as well as fast tracks.  His style is not particularly versatile, always taking to the lead early.  In recent form, he has not passed many other horses.

The most remarkable thing about Citation’s record was that he raced so many times in a single year in such good company, let alone won so many of them.  Horses of that caliber just don’t race as frequently as they use to.  Consider this – Citation actually snuck a race in between the Preakness and the Belmont on his way to a Triple Crown victory.  Are you kidding me?   Grade I winners have much more time to recover between races these days.  It makes sense that his single season win record would eventually fall to a much cheaper horse.

But Rapid Redux is not of Citation’s quality.  Compared to Citation or Zenyatta, Rapid Redux is a very slow race horse.  You won’t see him holding track records along with his win streak record.

My hat is off to Rapid Redux.  There should be no asterisks next to his record breaking run.  His accomplishments do not place him in the same company as Zenyatta or Citation, but they are impressive just the same.

by Ryan Patterson (Graded Stakes)

The Grade I Clark Handicap is a prestigious race ranking behind only the Kentucky Derby and Stephen Foster Handicap as one of the premier races on the Churchill Downs schedule every year.

Last year’s edition saw Successful Dan get to the wire first after a duel with Giant Oak, but he was disqualified to third, giving Giant Oak his first Grade I triumph. Wise Dan, half brother to Successful Dan, will try to avenge him this year.

Ruler On Ice: Looking better all the time and especially so after his last out third place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. In my mind he has validated his Belmont Stakes win.  Winning here would be the cherry on top of a highly successful 2011 campaign.

Alma d’Oro: He looks outclassed here, but he did finish a close second in the Grade III Ack Ack Handicap last out. It would take a career best effort and a lot of luck for him to win.

Demarcation: He’s working well, but on recent form he doesn’t fit with this bunch.

Stately Victor: Fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf was better than I expected from him. Moving to the dirt, a surface over which he is winless is hard to buy.

Mission Impazible: Looked tremendous four back when he finished second beaten a neck in the Stephen Foster. He hasn’t fired since then, but he enters this race with strong works and gets back to a surface he loves. Racing near the pace will help him and so will carrying six pounds less than the chalk. He’s the pick at 12-1.

Flat Out: Figures to be over bet just as he was in the Breeders’ Cup Classic where he finished fifth as the lukewarm favorite. He’s cracked a 100+ Beyer Speed Figure five times in a row and doing so again would likely make him a winner here. I don’t think he is as good around two turns and he might not prefer the Churchill surface. Traditionally, horses exiting the Breeders’ Cup are a good bet against opportunity.

Pleasant Prince: He’s done his best work at this distance, but he may be a cut below the best ones in here.

Headache: Hawthorne Gold Cup winner seems to have an affinity for the surface. He was overmatched last out in the Breeders’ Cup Classic where he finished last, but getting back on track here is not out of the question. He’s a fringe contender.

Mister Mardi Gras: Ran them down over a muddy track to win the Ack Ack Handicap last out. He’s facing a different caliber field here and will need some big time luck to get the job done.

Will’s Wildcat: Sophomore has some serious speed and he loves the surface. Distance is a question, but if he handles it he could get a piece at an enormous price.

Wise Dan: He’s excelled in his last four races after doing poorly in the first three of the year. He crushed the competition to win by four in the Fayette last out. That was his first route win and now he will try to win routing on the dirt for his first Grade I triumph. Clearly, this is one of top contenders.

Prayer For Relief: Zayat owned colt is quietly having a great year with wins in the Iowa Derby, West Virginia and Super Derby. Speed is his weapon and you can expect Rafael Bejarano to have him very close to the front.

General Quarters: He ran on well to be second in the Kentucky Cup Classic before fading in the Fayette last out. He’s probably not the same horse that he once was.

Mission Impazible (12-1) will be my top selection here. There is too much value to pass up on a Todd Pletcher trainee that has the perfect running style for this, likes the surface and is getting six pounds on the favorite.

Check out our horse betting at Graded Stakes page to learn more about betting horses online.

Betting Guide for the Saratoga Season 2011

Christmas in Saratoga Springs ~

On Friday August 22nd, Opening Day of the 2011 Saratoga race meet will finally be here. The 40 quickest days of the year will be upon us.

The Saratoga racing meet is the toughest and most prestigious racing meet run in the United States. Horses, trainers, and jockeys come from everywhere all trying for the same thing – an elusive Win at Saratoga.

Owners and trainers do things during the Saratoga meet they would never do anywhere else to get their picture taken in the winners circle. Veteran trainers to the hollowed Saratoga grounds always have an ace or two up their sleeves in order to cash that ticket and get that win. They will train horses for months and months specifically to return to the races in Saratoga. I remember 20 years ago Sid Watters  trained a horse in the dark in order to keep her a secret so he could cash a ticket at Saratoga. She got beat a nose on a very bad ride by Mike Smith. Mr Watters never saddled another horse in NY because of that race. But that’s another story for another time.

What makes the racing at Saratoga especially hard is the mixture of horse and jockey populations with the ‘normal’ NYRA horses. There is no other place to be, so everyone comes to Saratoga. All the top Kentucky jockeys and trainers take up residence in Saratoga for the meet. Horses ship in from all parts of the globe, from all kinds of tracks. I have cashed huge tickets with horses shipping from Finger Lakes and other perceived  ‘lesser tracks’, as the masses of bettors focus on ‘name trainers and jockeys’ for their wagers. I’ve cashed many tickets on horses making their first start in the U.S. at Saratoga as well. Christophe Clement is especially adept at this. You also need to be on the lookout for horses dropping in class regardless of the track at which they last raced. Many horses get ‘dropped in class’ at Saratoga because its the best chance of winning ‘that race’ for that owner or trainer.

Saratoga is a 9 furlong dirt oval so there are no 1 1/16 mile races on dirt here. One mile and one eighth is the normal two turn route, with 10 and 16 furlong races also in the condition book this year as well. Sprint races can start from the 7 furlong chute moving down to 5 1/2 furlongs in distance.

Turf racing at Saratoga provides some of the most exciting and excruciating finishes of the year. Saving ground is essential for jockeys on the Saratoga turf courses. While most horses will be coming off the speed favoring Belmont turf course, Saratoga’s turf courses play just opposite. You might not see a wire to wire grass winner until the third week! A few years ago they began running turf sprints at Saratoga. I excelled at them from the start. They provide quite a handicapping challenge for most as they draw full fields of fast horses.

To be honest, it’s a tough 40 days to handicap and gamble everyday and prove profitable in the end. But it can be done, no question about it, if you cash a few big tickets.  The Pk’3 and Pk’4 are were the money is made for me. I find they provide the best overlay prices and big ticket payers. That’s where I come in. I have been cutting my teeth handicapping races at Saratoga for 25 years. I will offer free picks daily here on my blog, on my Twitter account @pick4win , and on Facebook as too.

May you have a prosperous and enjoyable Saratoga Season.

John Mooney

Blogger on Hoof Prints and Horse Play

Handicapper for www.pick4win.com

pick4win@gmail.com

10 Cent Superfecta Wagering Strategies by Dominic Godwinson

The 10-cent superfecta offers the most for your betting dollar than all the other exotic bets shown on the Kentucky Derby’s horse wagering menu. As soon as it was introduced in the mid-2000s, this betting strategy became extremely popular with gamblers who wanted to earn a huge return from a small investment. However, the majority of bettors tend to go too far when making 10-cent pluperfect bets by over-spreading them in bad positions or failing to utilize the appropriate key-horse and boxing methods. In this article, you will learn several basic tips and strategies regarding 10-cent superfecta gambling that help make more money at the race track.

The Four-Horse Box

Out of all the superfecta strategies, the Four-Horse Box is possibly the most widely executed because the gambler can get away with making a very low investment. All you have to do is spend $2.40 to box four horses that you believe may hit the board and you will get a bunch of racing action. The Four-Horse Box strategy is best for field sizes of eight or less horses. With each extra horse on the field, your chance at getting a super will be significantly decreased. So go with a single long shot and if it places first or second for a large price, you can reap the reward of a nice payday.

Do Not Use the Five-Horse Box

In some cases, a player will attempt to cover additional positions with the five-horse box when the four-horse version proves unsuccessful. With the five-horse box, you can cover 120 different combinations. And if you have ever done any handicapping on a race, you probably know this is too much. Four-horse boxes are fun, small bets. Five-horse boxes cost five times the amount and in addition, you will be stuck with a few lousy horses.

Hit the All Button

The majority of horse handicap picking experts believe that no matter the horse’s form in a race, the horse can reach fourth place. This rule of thumb is especially true during maiden claiming and claiming races when no horses look like winners and there is plenty of racing luck and randomness involved in what horse finishes fourth or last. Therefore, most professional horse gamblers utilize trifecta-style wagering during the first three places and hit the all button in order to cover each horse for fourth place. If you do not know how to position the first three spots, experiment with a three-horse box or a 2x3x3. Doing so will prevent the decrease in ticket prices, giving you the opportunity to hit. Single out one horse on top if you feel confident in regards to your handicapping.

Tax Rules

Since the 10-Cent superfecta strategy does not usually generate a return over the IRS reporting threshold, consider playing this strategy as a definite tax advantage. If your pockets are deep enough, and you have confidence in your 10-cent superfecta choices, you can bet multiple times by tapping the repeat button as often as you want. When you do this, every wager will fall underneath the IRS’ reporting threshold. However, when the value of every ticket is combined, the result will equal to a $2 or $4 superfecta wager. When the repeat button is used, you can keep more of the winnings and deal with less paperwork and hassle at the race track.

Dominic Godwinson is a chief editor of the ProfitsFinanceSite.com and an avid horse racing enthusiast. When not messing with finances he’s writing insightful horse racing tips for ProGroupRacing.com.au and other horse racing websites.